One Fish, Two Fish, Stat Fish, Jew Fish
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about us:
Jew Fish: a 26 year old economics student and a die hard Boston sports fan. Also blogs on economics and current events (and dirty jokes) at: shwa.tumblr.com
Stat Fish: a 25 year old law school graduate and a serious stat hound. Believes that stats always have the answer. It's just that the question is really, really, really hard to ask. :)
Want to contact us? statfishjewfish@gmail.com
Michigan St. does not deserve a 1 seed.
Seriously. They’re a good team, no question, and they may well win the B10 tournament. But that wouldn’t make them more deserving of a 1 seed than UConn, Pitt or Memphis. This is a team with some pretty freaking brutal losses under its belt. Losing to Maryland by 18! Losing to UNC by 35! Losses to Northwestern and Penn St by 7 and 4 respectively, both at home. And losing to Purdue by 18 away. They’ve won some good games, including good defeats of Kansas and Purdue, but the above losses are very worrisome for a team that, evidently, is considered to be one of the top 4 in the country. Any top team can have one or two of those losses, even great teams lose badly sometimes. But having 6 of them? Losing to UNC is fine, but losing by 35 is a joke. Losing to Purdue away is fine, but not by 18.
Contrast this with Pitt, UConn or Memphis. (Just losses being listed)
Pitt: Louisville 6 away, Villanova 10 away, Providence 8 away, West Virginia 14.
UConn: Georgetown 9 home, Pitt 8 home, Pitt 10 away, Syracuse 10.
Memphis: Xavier 5, Georgetown 9 Away, Syracuse 7 home.
There are a few losses that don’t look good, the georgetowns, the west virginia, the providence…
But Pitt as maybe 2 bad losses (bad losses = either losing to a team that had no business winning or losing by more than appropriate for a top team given the quality of opponent), in Providence and West Virginia. UConn has Georgetown by 9 at home. Memphis has Georgetown by 9 away.
I’ll be the first to admit that Memphis had an easier schedule than the other 3 (the other 3 are in the 13-20 range of difficulty ranking) while Memphis enjoyed a 68th ranked schedule. But any of those teams look way better than Michigan St - it got blown out by good teams, and lost to mediocre teams who don’t rate a bubble berth.
Is Michigan St. a bad team? Come on. They’re in the top 15, no question. But the fact that Pitt and UConn lost *recently* doesn’t make them somehow magically worse. Michigan St. lost more than the above 3, and it lost worse to worse teams. So let’s be reasonable. That two projected #1 seeds lost is remarkable. But to suggest that Michigan St. of all teams should ascend to their place… A bit silly.
