One Fish, Two Fish, Stat Fish, Jew Fish

Upset-tastic

This Thursday, four different top teams got knocked off of their high horse. Oklahoma was edged out by Oklahoma St. 61-60, in the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 tournament, Kansas was dropped by Baylor 71-64, Pittsburgh was dominated by West Virginia 74-60, and UConn lost to Syracuse 127-117 in 6 (count ‘em 6) overtimes. Pitt and UConn were both projected #1 seeds, Oklahoma was projected as a #2 seed, and Kansas as a #2-3 seed. What do these losses mean, both for their seedings and as reflections of their true quality?

UConn lost to Syracuse. Syracuse is a damned good team, in the 10-20 area, and losing to them 127-117 is no embarrassment, even for a 1 seed. I suspect that between the quality of Syracuse and the epic nature of the loss, I suspect the selection committee won’t hold it against UConn - their 1 seed will be intact.

Oklahoma lost by 1, to a quality team. Oklahoma St. is unranked, but the Pomeroy numbers have them as the #30 team, which I buy. Losing by 1 to the 30 team isn’t a big deal. Well, depending on how good you think Oklahoma is. If you think they’re a top 6 team, then it’s a moderately nasty knock. If you think they’re #18 (Pomeroy), it’s less of a big deal. #18 teams lose to #30 teams narrowly from time to time. They’ll probably keep their #2 seed. Another projected 2 seed, Kansas, lost to Baylor, and the 3 seeds aren’t a terribly threatening bunch. Practically, the loss was mostly a product of Oklahoma’s going 3-19 from beyond the arc. Had they performed normally, they’d have won by 8-11. But when you only win by 3-4 a game, it means that when you get unlucky, you lose.

**Side Note**

There is a divergence of opinion between stat people and fans regarding the significance of close wins. Most fans look at a team like Oklahoma, with 3 losses but a ton of narrow wins, and conclude that they’re looking at a great team that pulls together in tight spots. A stat person looks at the close wins, and figures that had chance gone slightly in the other direction the wins would have been losses - that a team that goes 10-0 in 1 point games should be more realistically treated as a 6-4 or 7-3 team. I’d like to think Oklahoma’s loss is a reflection of this. But of course, one game isn’t reflective of anything :)

Kansas lost to Baylor by 7. That’s a hard loss to a #51 team, for a team that was a projected #2 seed. This loss has a damned good chance of costing Kansas their shot at a 2 seed. If any of the projected 3 seeds runs the table on their tournament… It’s just a really disappointing loss - top teams will lose top #50 teams every now and then (paging North Carolina) but it’s still a nasty blow. It was a fair loss too, not 3 pointer luck.

Pitt lost by 14 to West Virginia. Losing to anyone by 14 when you’re a #1 seed is a huge knock. But West Virginia is unranked, projected as a #7 seed. Losing to a team like that at all is rough, losing by 14… But West Virginia is nowhere near as bad as all of that. UWV has played the 8th hardest schedule in the NCAA. Pomeroy has them at #9, and while that may make some people scoff, to have a 10 loss team that high, they are substantially better than popularly conceived. Even losing to a #9 team by 14 is huge. West Virginia got to the line 27 times, and made 25 of the resulting free throws. Will it cost Pitt a 1 seed? I don’t think so. The loss was rough, but does it drop Pitt lower than Memphis and Louisville? I doubt it, but it could happen.

As for the winners? Baylor’s resume is too weak for a seed, even after a good win over Kansas. West Virginia? I’d like to think that this win will bump them to a 5-6 seed, but that’s probably wishful thinking. If West Virginia drops both Syracuse, aaaaand the winner of Louisville / Villanova (which could happen), that would definitely do it. But we’ll see :) Oklahoma St.’s path to a higher seed lies through Missouri, a road that I do not envy. Syracuse is projected as a 6 seed, but they deserve better. The win over UConn will help a bit, but it’s West Virginia they need to beat.

Watch the end of the conference tournaments. We’ve got underdogs aplenty, and seeds are up for grabs :D