One Fish, Two Fish, Stat Fish, Jew Fish

Starbury Stats

Well, I can’t make substantive comments on Marbury’s defense.  (I mean, I could, but I’m not going to mess with it today.)  The 82 games +- numbers on Marbury’s defense are not favorable though - over his most recent 3 full seasons (05-07) the Knicks allowed from 4, 1.4, and 5.4 more points per 100 possessions when Marbury was on the court.  Exactly what that means is uncertain, but it sure as hell isn’t good.  Offensively, I can offer more info.

Over the past 3 seasons, Marbury’s offense has cost the Knicks anywhere from 1-2 wins a season as compared with an average starting PG (think T.J. Ford level offense).  He’s been a sub-par shooter, with 3 pointers unremarkable and 2 pointers poor.  He does generate above average points with free throws.  He dishes assists badly and commits fouls more than average.  He rebounds about average.  His one saving grace is that he commits turnovers rarely.  The major hole in his game is the shooting and the poor assists.

In 2005, it was a totally different story.  That year his offense was worth nearly 4 (count ‘em, four) wins over average to the knicks.  He was a decent shooter then (3s were bad, - 2 pointers were quite decent), but his real scoring value was from his free throws - the only players this year who get more per minute out of free throws are Devin Harris, Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul.  His rebounding was about the same, but everything else changed.  He committed fewer fouls, committed slightly fewer turnovers but his assist rate went from ass-terrible to respectable.  In short, when on his game (way, way, way back when) he was a top tier offensive PG, in the Steve Nash/Jameer Nelson/Chauncey Billups level.

What does this mean?  Well, it depends on how much of it is a product of his environment.  But the falloff in 2 point effectiveness and free throw efficiency suggest that a lot of his game was penetration, and that in the past 3 years his athleticism has deserted him.  Assists…  well, who knows, but they don’t look good.

How does he compare to Eddie House?  About the same, probably a little better overall.  House is a monster shooter from the outside, but beyond that is inferior to Marbury in every way.  Assuming what Marbury has done is what Boston would get, and assuming his personal issues wouldn’t cost Boston anything…  unless they’re buying cheap, I’m not really seeing it.  His offense doesn’t really justify much of an expenditure, and his defense is, from a casual examination, substantially worse than what Boston could get elsewhere (or from House.)  And then let’s add in the fact that the man has been riding pine since January of ‘08…

That said, if the price is right, I can see the rationale for a conservative gamble.  Worst case scenario, he blows, they’re out however much, and he doesn’t play.  But best case, he recaptures even some of his ‘05 form, and becomes a substantial contributor off the bench.  If the money is right (and the guy isn’t a cancer), this is a shrewd move.